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Scientists develop lifetime risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease in young people

Scientists develop lifetime risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease in young people

Scientists develop lifetime risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease in young people

(Summary description)Recently, the journal Science Bulletin (English version) published the research results of Professor Gu Dongfeng's team, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Vice President of Fu Wai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, in a cover article online.

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  • Time of issue:2020-12-22
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Recently, the journal Science Bulletin (English version) published online the research results of Professor Gu Dongfeng's team, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Vice President of Fu Wai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, in a cover article. Based on the China-PAR 10-year risk prediction model for the Chinese population, the team further developed a lifetime risk (up to 85 years) prediction model suitable for younger individuals (under 60 years of age) or individuals with low to moderate 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in China. The model assesses an individual's lifetime risk of developing ASCVD by entering their age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and diabetes. Based on this research, the researchers have also developed a web-based risk calculator (http://www.cvdrisk.com.cn) and a mobile risk assessment app, which is available to the public free of charge by searching for "cardiovascular risk" in your mobile phone's software shop.

 

 

  The goal of cardiovascular disease prevention is to reduce the incidence of or death from cardiovascular disease. If the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease and stroke in each of our lifetime can be known earlier in middle age, it can prompt people to be more vigilant, pay attention to lifestyle improvement and take preventive measures to minimise the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases.In 2016, Gu Dongfeng led a team to develop the China-PAR 10-year risk prediction model for the Chinese population to assess the risk of developing ASCVD over a 10-year period. Also, based on the importance of lifetime risk assessment in low-risk populations at 10-year risk, the researchers further developed the China-PAR lifetime risk prediction model published in the paper using data from four prospective cohort follow-ups with a total sample size of over 120,000 people.

 

  Gu Dongfeng said that the China-PAR lifetime risk prediction model is an important development of the 10-year risk prediction model, which enables young people or those with a low to moderate 10-year risk assessment to "see and understand" their risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease at different ages later in life from the perspective of the whole life cycle, to increase their awareness of the risks of various risk factors, and to enhance their compliance with lifestyle improvement and medication treatment, thus promoting early prevention in their life journey.

 

  Simin Liu, Professor at Brown University, USA, commented that lifetime risk assessment will help to increase public awareness of long-term risk hazards, leading to early intervention for non-desirable levels of risk factors. "Having both short term (10 year) and long term (lifetime) risk assessment tools is of great practical value to China in its efforts to prevent cardiovascular disease, and their widespread use will help to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in China, which in turn will contribute to the prevention and control of cardiovascular disease globally."

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